feat(小宝预警): 增加版本风险预测引擎
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312
apps/web/lib/xiaobao-risk.ts
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312
apps/web/lib/xiaobao-risk.ts
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import type { Bug } from './bug';
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import type { DevTask } from './dev-task';
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import { STATUS_PROGRESS, getEstimateHours } from './dev-task';
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import type { TestCase } from './test-case';
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import { getTestCaseEstimateHours } from './test-case';
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import { WORK_HOURS, addWorkHours } from './work-hours';
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export type XiaobaoRiskLevel = 'on_track' | 'attention' | 'at_risk' | 'likely_delayed' | 'blocked';
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export type XiaobaoConfidenceLevel = 'high' | 'medium' | 'low';
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export interface XiaobaoVersionRef {
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id: string;
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name: string;
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status?: string;
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productName?: string;
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projectName?: string;
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expectedReleaseDate?: string;
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members?: Array<{ id?: string; name: string; role?: string }>;
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}
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export interface RiskReason {
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key: string;
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title: string;
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detail: string;
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severity: 'info' | 'warning' | 'danger';
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count?: number;
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}
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export interface SilentRisk {
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key: string;
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title: string;
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detail: string;
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itemId?: string;
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itemType?: 'dev_task' | 'test_case' | 'bug' | 'version';
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}
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export interface XiaobaoRiskSignals {
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unfinishedCount: number;
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openBugCount: number;
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criticalBugCount: number;
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failedTestCount: number;
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blockedCount: number;
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silentRiskCount: number;
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daysToExpectedRelease?: number;
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}
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export interface XiaobaoVersionRisk {
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versionId: string;
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riskScore: number;
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riskLevel: XiaobaoRiskLevel;
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confidence: number;
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confidenceLevel: XiaobaoConfidenceLevel;
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forecastReleaseDate?: string;
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delayDays: number;
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remainingWorkHours: number;
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reasons: RiskReason[];
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silentRisks: SilentRisk[];
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signals: XiaobaoRiskSignals;
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trend: {
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direction: 'up' | 'down' | 'flat' | 'unknown';
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delta: number;
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summary: string;
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};
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}
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export interface CalcXiaobaoVersionRiskInput {
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version: XiaobaoVersionRef;
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devTasks?: DevTask[];
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testCases?: TestCase[];
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bugs?: Bug[];
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now?: Date;
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snapshots?: Array<{ riskScore: number; createdAt?: string; date?: string }>;
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silentRisks?: SilentRisk[];
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recentActivityCount?: number;
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lastActivityAt?: string;
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}
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const OPEN_BUG_STATUSES = new Set<Bug['status']>(['open', 'fixing', 'fixed', 'verifying']);
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const TEST_DONE_STATUSES = new Set<TestCase['status']>(['passed']);
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export function calcXiaobaoVersionRisk(input: CalcXiaobaoVersionRiskInput): XiaobaoVersionRisk {
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const now = input.now ?? new Date();
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const devTasks = input.devTasks ?? [];
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const testCases = input.testCases ?? [];
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const bugs = input.bugs ?? [];
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const silentRisks = input.silentRisks ?? [];
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const remainingDevHours = devTasks.reduce((sum, task) => {
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const estimate = getEstimateHours(task);
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const progress = STATUS_PROGRESS[task.status] ?? 0;
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return sum + estimate * Math.max(0, 100 - progress) / 100;
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}, 0);
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const remainingTestHours = testCases.reduce((sum, tc) => {
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if (TEST_DONE_STATUSES.has(tc.status)) return sum;
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return sum + getTestCaseEstimateHours(tc);
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}, 0);
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const openBugs = bugs.filter((bug) => OPEN_BUG_STATUSES.has(bug.status));
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const remainingBugHours = openBugs.reduce((sum, bug) => sum + getBugEstimateHours(bug), 0);
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const remainingWorkHours = roundHours(remainingDevHours + remainingTestHours + remainingBugHours);
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const forecastReleaseDate = remainingWorkHours > 0 ? addWorkHours(now.toISOString(), remainingWorkHours) : undefined;
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const expectedRelease = parseDate(input.version.expectedReleaseDate);
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const forecast = parseDate(forecastReleaseDate);
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const delayDays = expectedRelease && forecast && forecast.getTime() > expectedRelease.getTime()
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? roundDays((forecast.getTime() - expectedRelease.getTime()) / 86_400_000)
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: 0;
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const daysToExpectedRelease = expectedRelease
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? roundDays((expectedRelease.getTime() - now.getTime()) / 86_400_000)
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: undefined;
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const criticalBugCount = openBugs.filter((bug) => bug.severity === 'critical' || bug.priority === 'P1').length;
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const failedTestCount = testCases.filter((tc) => tc.status === 'failed').length;
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const blockedDevCount = devTasks.filter((task) => task.isBlocked).length;
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const blockedTestCount = testCases.filter((tc) => tc.status === 'blocked').length;
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const blockedCount = blockedDevCount + blockedTestCount;
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const unfinishedCount = devTasks.filter((task) => task.status !== 'submitted').length
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+ testCases.filter((tc) => tc.status !== 'passed').length
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+ openBugs.length;
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const reasons: RiskReason[] = [];
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if (remainingWorkHours > 0) {
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reasons.push({
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key: 'remaining_work',
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title: '剩余工作量',
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detail: `预计还剩 ${remainingWorkHours}h 工作量。`,
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severity: delayDays > 0 ? 'danger' : 'warning',
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});
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}
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if (delayDays > 0) {
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reasons.push({
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key: 'forecast_delay',
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title: '预测延期',
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detail: `预测发布时间晚于计划约 ${delayDays} 天。`,
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severity: 'danger',
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});
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}
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if (criticalBugCount > 0) {
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reasons.push({
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key: 'critical_bug',
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title: '关键缺陷',
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detail: `仍有 ${criticalBugCount} 个 P1 或致命 Bug 未关闭。`,
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severity: 'danger',
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count: criticalBugCount,
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});
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}
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if (blockedCount > 0) {
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reasons.push({
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key: 'blocked_work',
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title: '阻塞工作',
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detail: `仍有 ${blockedCount} 个开发或测试项处于阻塞。`,
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severity: 'danger',
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count: blockedCount,
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});
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}
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if (failedTestCount > 0) {
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reasons.push({
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key: 'failed_test',
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title: '失败用例',
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detail: `仍有 ${failedTestCount} 个测试用例未通过。`,
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severity: 'warning',
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count: failedTestCount,
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});
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}
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const signals: XiaobaoRiskSignals = {
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unfinishedCount,
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openBugCount: openBugs.length,
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criticalBugCount,
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failedTestCount,
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blockedCount,
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silentRiskCount: silentRisks.length,
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daysToExpectedRelease,
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};
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const riskScore = calcRiskScore({
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delayDays,
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remainingWorkHours,
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criticalBugCount,
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failedTestCount,
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blockedCount,
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silentRiskCount: silentRisks.length,
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daysToExpectedRelease,
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});
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const hasBlockingRisk = criticalBugCount > 0 || blockedCount > 0;
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const riskLevel = getRiskLevel(riskScore, delayDays, hasBlockingRisk);
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const confidence = calcConfidence(input, devTasks, testCases, bugs);
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const trend = calcTrend(riskScore, input.snapshots ?? []);
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return {
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versionId: input.version.id,
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riskScore,
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riskLevel,
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confidence,
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confidenceLevel: getConfidenceLevel(confidence),
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forecastReleaseDate,
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delayDays,
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remainingWorkHours,
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reasons,
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silentRisks,
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signals,
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trend,
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};
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}
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function getBugEstimateHours(bug: Bug): number {
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if (typeof bug.estimateHours === 'number' && bug.estimateHours > 0) return roundHours(bug.estimateHours);
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if (typeof bug.aiEstimateHours === 'number' && bug.aiEstimateHours > 0) return roundHours(bug.aiEstimateHours);
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if (bug.severity === 'critical') return 16;
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if (bug.severity === 'major') return 8;
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return 4;
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}
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function calcRiskScore(input: {
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delayDays: number;
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remainingWorkHours: number;
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criticalBugCount: number;
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failedTestCount: number;
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blockedCount: number;
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silentRiskCount: number;
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daysToExpectedRelease?: number;
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}): number {
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let score = 0;
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if (input.delayDays > 0) score += 70 + Math.min(15, input.delayDays * 3);
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if (input.daysToExpectedRelease !== undefined && input.daysToExpectedRelease <= 2 && input.remainingWorkHours > 0) {
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score += Math.min(20, input.remainingWorkHours / WORK_HOURS.hoursPerDay * 4);
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}
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score += input.criticalBugCount * 25;
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score += input.blockedCount * 22;
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score += input.failedTestCount * 12;
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score += input.silentRiskCount * 8;
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if (input.remainingWorkHours > 0 && input.delayDays === 0) {
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score += Math.min(35, input.remainingWorkHours / WORK_HOURS.hoursPerDay * 5);
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}
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return clampScore(score);
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}
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function getRiskLevel(score: number, delayDays: number, hasBlockingRisk: boolean): XiaobaoRiskLevel {
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if (hasBlockingRisk) return 'blocked';
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if (delayDays > 0 || score >= 75) return 'likely_delayed';
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if (score >= 55) return 'at_risk';
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if (score >= 30) return 'attention';
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return 'on_track';
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}
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function calcConfidence(
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input: CalcXiaobaoVersionRiskInput,
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devTasks: DevTask[],
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testCases: TestCase[],
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bugs: Bug[],
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): number {
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let confidence = 100;
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if (!input.version.expectedReleaseDate) confidence -= 20;
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const workItems = [...devTasks, ...testCases, ...bugs];
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const missingEstimateCount = workItems.filter((item) => !hasEstimate(item)).length;
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if (missingEstimateCount > 0) confidence -= Math.min(25, missingEstimateCount * 5);
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if (testCases.length === 0) confidence -= 15;
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if (!input.version.members || input.version.members.length === 0) confidence -= 10;
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if (input.recentActivityCount === 0 || input.lastActivityAt === undefined) confidence -= 10;
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if ((input.snapshots?.length ?? 0) < 2) confidence -= 10;
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return clampScore(confidence);
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}
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function hasEstimate(item: DevTask | TestCase | Bug): boolean {
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return (typeof item.estimateHours === 'number' && item.estimateHours > 0)
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|| (typeof item.aiEstimateHours === 'number' && item.aiEstimateHours > 0);
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}
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function calcTrend(
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currentScore: number,
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snapshots: Array<{ riskScore: number; createdAt?: string; date?: string }>,
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): XiaobaoVersionRisk['trend'] {
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if (snapshots.length === 0) {
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return { direction: 'unknown', delta: 0, summary: '暂无历史快照。' };
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}
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const latest = [...snapshots].sort((a, b) => {
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const aTime = parseDate(a.createdAt ?? a.date)?.getTime() ?? 0;
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const bTime = parseDate(b.createdAt ?? b.date)?.getTime() ?? 0;
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return bTime - aTime;
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})[0];
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const delta = clampScore(currentScore) - clampScore(latest.riskScore);
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const direction = Math.abs(delta) < 5 ? 'flat' : delta > 0 ? 'up' : 'down';
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const summary = direction === 'flat'
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? '风险基本持平。'
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: direction === 'up'
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? `风险上升 ${delta} 分。`
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: `风险下降 ${Math.abs(delta)} 分。`;
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return { direction, delta, summary };
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}
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function getConfidenceLevel(confidence: number): XiaobaoConfidenceLevel {
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if (confidence >= 75) return 'high';
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if (confidence >= 50) return 'medium';
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return 'low';
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}
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function parseDate(iso?: string): Date | undefined {
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if (!iso) return undefined;
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const date = new Date(iso);
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return Number.isNaN(date.getTime()) ? undefined : date;
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}
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function roundHours(hours: number): number {
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return Math.round(hours * 2) / 2;
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}
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function roundDays(days: number): number {
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return Math.round(days * 10) / 10;
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}
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function clampScore(score: number): number {
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return Math.max(0, Math.min(100, Math.round(score)));
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}
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